June 29
Should one federal district court be able to block Administration policy for the nation?
After all the United States Supreme Court can always step in with emergency injunctions against unconstitutional policies.
In a 6-3 decision Supreme Court ended the practice of universal injunctions. The ruling, which did not address President Donald Trump's executive order on birthright citizenship, eliminated a tool used by lower federal courts to block the executive branch from implementing arguably unconstitutional laws or policies nationwide.
In the short term, the decision is a win for the Trump administration, which has faced multiple such orders issued by lower courts blocking a range of unprecedented and illegal actions. But the opinion, by Justice Amy Coney Barrett, left room for those courts to use other legal techniques, class actions, to achieve the same end. And the Supreme Court will continue to be able to block executive actions nationwide with precedent-based decisions.
Today, the Senate should start voting on the omnibus Reconciliation bill. The only thing I am focused on is making permanent three pro business investment provisions: R&D, 100% immediate depreciation of new investment and an expansion of the business interest deduction on debt used for investment.
Otherwise, the Reconciliation bill is a mess. Congress should be raising taxes on individuals, everyone, not cutting them. But politicians want to be re elected.
The Reconciliation bill will increase the deficit by $3-5 trillion over a decade depending on the path of interest rates.
The AI revolution will increase long term capital investment put upward pressure on rates, more demand for money.
And the President is grossly negligent with his proposals regarding defense spending.
The Trump administration’s defense budget is strikingly inadequate to meet the moment. The White House proposed a defense budget of $892.6 billion for fiscal 2026, which is a cut in real terms from the previous year. According to Sen. Roger Wicker (R., Miss.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, even with the bonus, the administration’s proposal would leave the U.S. with a defense budget of only 2.65% of gross domestic product by 2029.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-presidents-defense-budget-misses-the-mark-17d02713
The country should be spending 4-5% of GDP on defense. And taxes should be raised on everyone to pay for that increase.
The United States faces multiple national security challenges: China, Russia, rogue nations and international terrorism.
Markets and Stocks
The market should grind higher. But stocks are not cheap, so invest, don’t trade and do not increase risk. Focus on stocks that you will be comfortable with holding for several years.
The market will be closed Friday for July 4.
The S&P 500 set a new all time high last week. It closed at 6,173.
The Nasdaq Composite also set a new all time high, 20,273.
The July employment report will be out Thursday. The market is nervous about the employment market because job creation is slowing as layoffs edge higher. The Fed would cut next month but Trump’s tariffs are a roadblock to that. A September rate cut is likely.
We will also see the ISM services and manufacturing reports. Manufacturing will continue to be soft while services should be positive and resilient.
Politics
Axios is right. What goes around, comes around. When Democrats take power, Republicans will scream bloody murder.
Why it matters: New precedents are exhilarating when you're in power — and excruciating when you're not, Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen write in a "Behind the Curtain" column.
🔎 Here are 10 new precedents, all established with minimal GOP dissent, being set by President Trump + Congress + courts:
Presidents can limit the classified information they share with lawmakers after bombing a foreign country without the approval of Congress.
Presidents can usurp Congress's power to levy tariffs, provided they declare a national emergency.
Presidents can unilaterally freeze spending approved by Congress, and dismantle or fire the heads of independent agencies established by law.
Presidents can take control of a state's National Guard, even if the governor opposes it, and occupy the state for as long as said president wants.
Presidents can accept gifts from foreign nations, as large as a $200 million plane, even if it's unclear whether said president gets to keep the plane at the end of the term.
Presidents can actively profit from their time in office, including creating new currencies structured to allow foreign nationals to invest anonymously, benefiting said president.
Presidents can try to browbeat the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates, including by floating replacements for the Fed chair before their term is up.
Presidents can direct the Justice Department to prosecute their political opponents and punish critics. These punishments can include stripping Secret Service protections, suing them and threatening imprisonment.
Presidents can punish media companies, law firms and universities that don't share their viewpoints or values.
Presidents can aggressively pardon supporters, including those who made large political donations as part of their bid for freedom. The strength of the case in said pardons is irrelevant.